The job market in Michigan continues to tighten according to the latest Michigan Business Outlook from the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, but the issue is being exacerbated in Berrien County by the average age of the workforce here, and that looms large in the future for local manufacturers.
The workforce in the Niles–Benton Harbor Metropolitan Statistical Area — or MSA — is on average older than the workforce in the state and the nation. The local MSA essentially is all of Berrien County, where workers in the age groups 45 to 54, 55 to 64, and 65 and over all form larger percentages of the employed than those same groups do for the nation or the state of Michigan.
As a result, Regional Analyst Brian Pittelko and his colleagues at the Upjohn Institute contend that, “Manufacturing firms in the Niles–Benton Harbor MSA face a looming retirement issue with their production workers: the largest age group consists of workers aged 55 to 64, and there does not appear to be a large influx of younger workers coming in to replace those about to retire.” The new report released today also points out that, “Over half of all the area’s production workers are 45 and older. Nonproduction workers also tend to be older, but not by as much.”
The overall report tells us the entire West Michigan job market continues to tighten. Total employment was virtually unchanged in west Michigan in the second quarter of 2017, falling by 0.02-percent. However, even though the service sector suffered losses, the region’s unemployment rate fell to 3.2-percent, from 3.9-percent in the previous quarter—a nearly 20-percent drop.
Pittelko asks, “In such a tight job market, what job opportunities exist to keep workers in the region?” The fall issue of Business Outlook examines that question and finds that the job postings for the categories with the lowest median age (in other words, half of jobholders above that age, half below) are these:
- Sales and related occupations, with a median age of 39
- Health care–related jobs at 40
- Office and administrative support at 41
Collectively, these three occupational groups account for about one-third of all job postings in west Michigan.
Pittelko goes on to say, “But in looking at west Michigan job growth by industry, we see that job gains are concentrated in three areas:
- Leisure and hospitality
- Manufacturing
- Government.
Job declines have occurred in only two:
- Education and health
- Professional and business services.
Here are brief capsules of market conditions in each of the various metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) of West Michigan:
NILES–BENTON HARBOR MSA
Total employment increased by 0.3-percent in the Niles–Benton Harbor area during the second quarter. Professional and business services led growth, adding 2.3-percent over the quarter. The area’s unemployment rate fell to 4.0-percent from 4.7-percent in the previous quarter.
BATTLE CREEK MSA
Total employment in the Battle Creek MSA increased in the second quarter of 2017 by 0.3-percent. Service employment also increased by 0.3-percent, led by gains in professional and business services employment. Goods-producing employment was unchanged in the quarter, as increases in manufacturing were offset by a decline in construction employment. The area’s unemployment rate fell to 4.0-percent.
GRAND RAPIDS–WYOMING MSA
Total employment in the Grand Rapids–Wyoming MSA increased by 0.1-percent during the second quarter. Quarterly job gains in the goods-producing and government sectors were nearly offset by losses in private service–providing employment. The unemployment rate fell to 2.8-percent, down from 3.4-percent in the first quarter of 2017.
HOLLAND–OTTAWA COUNTY
Note: As explained in the previous issue, Business Outlook now shows Ottawa County as a subset of the Grand Rapids–Wyoming MSA, and, as such, certain data are not available. Data on employment by industry are available for Ottawa County, but there is a seven-month lag before those data become available. Any data that can be reported in a timely manner will still be included, such as the unemployment rate.
Employment in Ottawa County improved by 0.5-percent during the fourth quarter of 2016. Employment gains were pushed by goods-producing employment: construction and mining added 800 jobs, and manufacturing grew by 210 jobs.
KALAMAZOO-PORTAGE MSA
Employment in the Kalamazoo-Portage MSA was unchanged from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2017. Goods-producing and government employment led growth, but losses in the services sector negated any employment gains. The area’s unemployment rate fell to 3.5-percent from 4.3-percent in the previous quarter.
MUSKEGON–NORTON SHORES MSA
Employment in Muskegon County fell by 0.5-percent in the second quarter, the largest gain since the end of the Great Recession. The goods-producing and government sectors posted solid gains over the quarter, but losses in the services sector were enough to bring total employment down by 340 jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4-percent, from 5.3-percent in the previous quarter.
Business Outlook for West Michigan is a quarterly publication of the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, a nonprofit research organization established on July 1, 1945. It is an activity of the W.E. Upjohn Unemployment Trustee Corporation, which was formed in 1932 to administer a fund set aside by the late Dr. W.E. Upjohn for the purpose of carrying on “research into the causes and effects of unemployment and measures for the alleviation of unemployment.”
Click the link below to scan the entire Business Outlook for the Fall of 2017:
Business-Outlook-Vol.-33-No.-3-Fall-2017
