Despite Uncertainties, Back-to-School Spending Expected to Set New Records

Even with the return to school this fall still up in the area in light of the pandemic, families across America are tentatively planning to increase Back-to-School spending to record levels according to the latest survey data from the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics.

According to the numbers released this week, consumers tentatively plan to spend a record amount to prepare students for school and college this year as they buy more laptops and computer accessories in anticipation that at least some classes will take place online due to the coronavirus pandemic.

National Retail Federation President and CEO Matthew Shay says, “By any measure, this is an unprecedented year with great uncertainty, including how students will get their education this fall whether they are in kindergarten or college.” He adds, “Most parents don’t know whether their children will be sitting in a classroom or in front of a computer in the dining room, or a combination of the two. But they do know the value of an education and are navigating uncertainty and unknowns so that students are prepared.”

Parents with children in elementary school through high school say they plan to spend an average of $789.49 per family, topping the previous record of $696.70 they said they would spend last year. Spending is expected to total $33.9 billion, up from $26.2 billion last year and breaking the record of $30.3 billion set in 2012.

Your content continues below

College students and their families expect to spend an average of $1,059.20 per family, which would top last year’s record of $976.78. College spending is expected to total $67.7 billion, up from $54.5 billion last year and breaking the record of $55.3 billion set in 2018.

Total spending for K-12 and college combined is projected to reach $101.6 billion – exceeding last year’s $80.7 billion and topping the $100 billion mark for the first time in history.

With many school districts and colleges across the nation still deciding whether to reopen their classrooms in the fall, consumers surveyed had finished only 17-percent of their shopping on average by early July. Among those with most of their shopping left to do, 54-percent said it was because they did not yet know what they will need. Only 10-percent had received lists of required school supplies. But 40-percent expect to receive the lists by the end of this month and another 30-percent by the end of August – information that could reflect schools’ reopening plans and affect how much consumers actually spend.

Amid the uncertainty, 55-percent of shoppers surveyed expected K-12 and college students will take at least some of their classes at home this fall, with only 26-percent expecting most or all classes will be taught in-person. Of those expecting students to be at home, 72-percent believe they will need to buy items like computers, home furnishings or other supplies to accommodate learning. The survey found 36-percent expect to buy laptops, 22-percent computer speakers/headphones, 21-percent other accessories such as a mouse or flash drive, and 17-percent printers. A similar 17-percent plan to buy non-computer items including calculators, furniture like a desk or chair, and workbooks.

The vast majority of consumers (88-percent) say the coronavirus will affect their back-to-class shopping in some form this year, with 43-percent planning to shop more online – although that could include the websites of bricks-and-mortar retailers – and 30-percent saying they will do more comparison shopping.

According to the survey, 63-percent of K-12 families expect to buy computers and other electronics this year, up from 54-percent last year, and they expect to spend more at an average $274.44, up from $203.44 last year. The $71 difference accounts for the largest share of the overall increase in average spending of almost $93.

With K-12 students continuing to grow regardless of whether they are studying at home or at school, the amount parents plan to spend on clothing is down only slightly at an average $234.48, compared with $239.82 last year. Traditional school supplies such as pencils and paper are expected to average $131.37, up from $117.49.

Even though brick-and-mortar stores closed by the pandemic have begun reopening, more than half of K-12 shoppers (55-percent) say they will buy online, up from 49-percent last year. All other shopping destinations are expected to see declines, with 37-percent of consumers going to department stores (down from 53-percent), 36-percent discount stores (down from 50-percent), 30-percent clothing stores (down from 45-percent) and 23-percent office supply stores (down from 31-percent).

Among college shoppers, 60-percent plan to buy electronics, up from 53-percent last year, and they expect to spend more at an average $261.52, up from $234.69. Dorm furnishings average $129.76, up from $120.19, while clothing should be almost unchanged at $148.37 on average, compared with $148.54, with school supplies at $83.78, up from $71.92.

Like K-12 families, the largest share of college shoppers (43-percent) plan to make purchases online, but that number is down from 45-percent last year. While 31-percent will go to discount stores (down from 36-percent), department stores and office supply stores are tied at 26-percent (down from 39-percent and 29-percent respectively) and 25-percent plan to go to college bookstores (down from 32-percent).

Prosper Insights Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist says, “With consumers cautious about how much time they spend out in public, there is likely to be less going store-to-store to comparison shop this year,” and adds, “College shoppers, in particular, may be planning to choose just one or two places to pick up the items they need rather than browsing at multiple locations. And college students beyond their first year may already have most of the big purchases that they need.”

The survey of 7,481 consumers was conducted July 1st-to-July 8th and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1-percentage points.

The National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association, advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail thrive. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $3.9 trillion to annual GDP and supporting one in four U.S. jobs — 52 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies.