State officials pooled their resources and put their collective heads together again this morning in Lansing for their updated Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference in search of answers regarding where we’ve been, where we’re at, and where we’re headed as a result of fiscal policies, pandemic impacts, federal stimulus money and beyond. The result is an upward revision in projected revenues from the last conference in August as the federal CARES Act money is helping right the ship to some degree.
State Treasurer Rachael Eubanks, State Budget Director Dave Massaron, Senate Fiscal Agency Director Christopher Harkins and House Fiscal Agency Director Mary Ann Cleary today reached consensus on revised economic and revenue figures for the remainder of Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 and for the upcoming 2022 and 2023 fiscal years.
FY2021 and 2022 Revenue Forecasts (General Fund and School Aid Fund Combined)
| January 2020 |
August 2020 |
Change from January to August | January 2021 | Change from January 2020 to January 2021 | |
| FY 2021 | $25.51 billion | $23.04 billion | -$2.47 billion | $24.27 billion | -$1.24 billion |
| FY 2022 | $26.16 billion | $24.45 billion | -$1.71 billion | $25.32 billion | -$84 million |
State Treasurer Rachael Eubanks says, “While the pandemic has had a dramatic impact on our economy, the state of Michigan has outperformed national averages in a number of areas,” and adds, “While still down more than $1 billion compared to before the pandemic, today the state’s revenues were raised upwards primarily due to direct and indirect impacts from the federal stimulus. Our economic recovery this year will continue to depend on the course of the pandemic and the additional economic relief coming from Washington D.C. There is cautious hope and optimism as we move forward as vaccines are administered, and we begin to put the pandemic behind us.”
In addition to the FY2021 and FY2022 forecasts, initial revenue estimates for FY 2023 were released.
FY2023 Revenue Forecast
| General Fund |
School Aid Fund |
Overall | |
| FY 2023 | $11.17 billion | $14.73 billion | $25.90 billion |
The revenue estimates are based on the most recent economic projections and forecasting models. As with any economic and revenue forecasts, there are potential risks to the estimates agreed to today, including further COVID-19 outbreaks, national economic trends, and international economic issues.
State Budget Director Dave Massaron says, “The good news is that the revenue picture has, as a result of the Governor’s proactive management of the pandemic, improved since we last did estimates in August.” He adds, “This provides one-time revenue to make necessary investments in the pandemic recovery and other one-time needs of the state.”
The January Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference’s detailed forecast – as well as presentations from today’s session – can be found on the House Fiscal Agency’s website at this link: https://www.house.mi.gov/hfa/Consensus.asp
