Calling it a “topsy-turvy” month “as COVID-19 brought a lot of shifts and uncertainty,” the National Retail Federation’s Chief Economist says, nevertheless, “Consumer spending remains intact, even if sales grew less than in July.”
That’s the quick assessment from Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, as retail sales continued to recover from the coronavirus pandemic in August, showing a gradual improvement from July and larger gains year-over-year.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay says today, “While August retail sales numbers were a bit mixed, we believe the consumer is resilient and is in good shape as we head into the holiday season.” Shay adds, “Over the past several months, consumers have responded well to federal relief measures that have supported the recovery, so it comes as no surprise that they would take a pause on spending as some of these programs tapered off at the end of July. We continue to advocate for additional stimulus measures to help the economy recover. With the holidays quickly approaching, our retailers are prepared to serve customers to meet all of their holiday needs and are embracing the new holiday tradition of shopping early.”
Meanwhile, Kleinhenz says, “Retail spending habits have remained largely consistent and stable these past few months since stores began to reopen. Some consumers likely reduced their spending with the end of the $600 supplemental unemployment benefits for those out of work, but a building-up of savings from that and other government cash helped support spending.” He adds, “At this juncture, it is difficult to sort out how much economic activity is due to government support and how much is evidence of hardcore demand due to recent job gains. August numbers might have been higher if not for small businesses struggling with reopening and the return to full operations.”
The U.S. Census Bureau says today that overall retail sales during August were up 0.6-percent seasonally adjusted from July and up 2.6-percent year-over-year. That follows a 0.9-percent month-over-month increase in July. Retail sales have been climbing after a record monthly drop while most stores were closed in April.
The National Retail Federation’s calculation of retail sales – which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants in order to focus on core retail – showed August was up 0.1-percent seasonally adjusted from July and up 5.6-percent unadjusted year-over-year. Their results are different from the Census Bureau’s figures because of the categories excluded by the federation.
The August NRF numbers build on a 0.6-percent monthly increase and 9.6-percent year-over-year increase in July. NRF’s numbers were up 8.5-percent unadjusted year-over-year on a three-month moving average.
Just over half of retail categories saw month-over-month gains and two-thirds saw year-over-year increases. The biggest monthly gain came at clothing stores, but their sales remained far below last year.
Specifics from key retail sectors during August include:
- Clothing and clothing accessory stores were up 2.9-percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted but down 23.5-percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 2.1-percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 0.4-percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- Building materials and garden supply stores were up 2-percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 11.9-percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- Electronics and appliance stores were up 0.8-percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted but down 3.4-percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- Online and other non-store sales were unchanged month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 20.1-percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- Health and personal care stores were up 0.8-percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 3.3-percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- General merchandise stores were down 0.4-percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and down 0.2-percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- Grocery and beverage stores were down 1.2-percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 8.3-percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- Sporting goods stores were down 5.7-percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 8-percent unadjusted year-over-year.
The National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association, advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail thrive. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $3.9 trillion to annual GDP and supporting one in four U.S. jobs — 52 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies.