The Kinexus Group is a public/private non-profit group that tracks employment and coordinates job training and recruitment in Michigan, with an emphasis in the three county Southwest Michigan Region: Berrien, Cass & Van Buren Counties (BCVB). The Kinexus mission is to inspire positive economic change one individual, one business, and one community at a time.
Occasionally, Kinexus leaders sit down with local reporters and dig deeper into the numbers they’re finding, and try to help us understand what they mean—so we can help YOU understand the economic reality that’s playing out around you every day as you work, shop, raise your family and conduct everyday life in Michigan’s Great Southwest.
In the latest of those sessions, reporters were given a ‘pile’ of statistics… and here are a few that stood out.
–If the UAW Strike against the Big Three Automakers runs very long, there WILL be negative economic effects—and they are likely to be deeper here in SW Michigan than across the country, because so many of our small manufacturers (the lifeblood of our non-Tourism economy) sell most of their products to the auto industry. (More detail on this in a separate story from reporter Ken Lundberg)
–Unemployment is UP half a percentage point from prior to the pandemic in SW Michigan, because the Labor Force (those willing to work) is smaller. Retirements, relocations, and lifestyle changes are all a factor. The situation is more concerning here than nationally. On the positive side, In the last year, the local Labor Force has been gradually increasing again. However, it still lags historical levels and contributes to employers’ frustrations in finding workers. (statistical analysis below)
· BCVB’s labor force is still down roughly 2,600 workers (-2.0%) from January 2020.
Employment levels are down roughly 2.4% (-3,100 workers) and unemployment levels are up 8.6% (+500).
Cass’ labor force losses (-4.2%, -1.0k) significant compared to Berrien (-1.4%, -1.1k) and VBC (-2.2%, -761).
This is likely attributable to Cass’ older population and reflects the outsized impact of retirements.
BCVB’s labor force losses since January 2020 match the state’s, but the U.S. has seen labor force growth.
BCVB has seen a 2.0% labor force contraction, basically equivalent to Michigan’s -1.9%.
The U.S. labor force has grown by 1.3% over the same period.
Local labor force declines have likely been fueled by BCVB’s older resident population.
Statewide labor force declines have been more significant in the Detroit metro area.
This may be due to a combination of population outflow and structural employment barriers.
BCVB has seen major labor force and employment growth over the last year.
The labor force has grown by roughly 3,600 (+2.8%) and employment is up 3,500 (+2.9%).
BCVB’s 2.9% YoY labor force growth rate is roughly double that of Michigan (+1.4%) and the U.S. (+1.6%).
Unlike Michigan/the U.S., the local unemployment rate has not returned to its pre-pandemic level.
The Michigan (4.0%) and U.S. (3.6%) unemployment rates are back to their January 2020 levels.
BCVB’s currently sits at 4.7%, five-tenths of a percentage point higher than in Jan. 2020 (4.2%).
The local unemployment rate has been essentially unchanged since November 2022.
It is apparent that elevated unemployment is now uniquely baked into the local labor market.
Kinexus tracks Job Postings as a way to focus its efforts to help employers find and train workers, which benefits everyone in the economy. Those job postings are telling several stories as Summer, 2023 draws to a close.
–There are still more jobs available in SW Michigan than there are people looking for a job. That’s been the case since the pandemic concluded. The sheer numbers, of course, do not take Into account job qualifications, training or suitability. So, many of those jobs remain unfilled.
–More people are coming back into the job market—which is a good thing. However, at the same time, employers are beginning to cut back, reflecting economic fears of inflation-driven wage levels, recession predictions from some politicians, and ‘recruiting fatigue’—employers are simply weary of trying to fill certain job openings, so they close the job posting.
Here is what Kinexus found regarding Job Postings in its latest analysis:
· Both new and active job posting levels remain elevated throughout BCVB but continue to track downward.
o New job postings are up 51% from February 2020 and active postings are up 56%.
o They both peaked in March 2022 and have been on a downward trajectory since that time, however.
o Active postings are down 36% and new postings are down 23% since March 2022.
· There continues to be more active postings in BCVB than unemployed workers.
o There were 7,032 total active job postings in July but only 6,595 total unemployed individuals in BCVB.
o This means there were 0.94 unemployed workers per open job in the region.
· The numbers of both active and new job postings fell extremely sharply in August.
o This mirrors statewide and national trends as businesses close unfilled job openings.
o Businesses are dialing back projected talent needs under the weight of higher wages and slowing activity.
Kinexus leaders pointed to a long-term hopeful sign for the beleaguered Leisure and Hospitality sector—perhaps the most visibly affected by work force defections and turnover for the past three years. They predict that over the next ten years, Leisure and Tourism will be a leading growth segment in the region’s economy.
At the same time, Kinexus points out that while it may not be obvious on the surface, the Southwest Michigan economy is still driven by manufacturing. Huge national brand names (like Whirlpool and Clark Equipment) may no longer have manufacturing plants here. However, smaller, privately owned manufacturers are tucked away in plain gray and white buildings all over the rggion, turning out parts and assemblies, usually for the auto industry.
Kinexus Chief Marketing Officer Mary Morphey summed it up: “Manufacturing IS Michigan’s Economy!”
By Gayle Olson, MOTM Contributor
