Mixed economic indicators in the region over the most recent quarter are leading economists at the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research to project the potential for flat conditions going forward. That’s the thumbnail sketch in the latest Business Outlook for West Michigan produced by the group based in Kalamazoo. That’s the projection for the Niles-Benton Harbor Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) — essentially all of Berrien County — one of multiple projections contained in the report released this week.
Throughout all of West Michigan, second quarter 2016 saw employment in the five metropolitan areas increase by 0.5-percent for a gain of more than 4,000 jobs. As was the case in Berrien County, employment gains came largely in the goods-producing sector. That sector witnessed a 1.5-percent gain in Berrien County, while service-providing employment fell by 0.8-percent and government employment remained virtually unchanged.
Despite a 0.2-percent drop in total employment for Berrien County in the second quarter, the area’s unemployment rate fell to 4.4-percent from the 4.5-percent rate in the previous quarter.
Manufacturing employment led the way in Berrien County with a 2.0-percent gain. That helped push overall goods-producing employment up by 1.5-percent. In the service-providing sector the 0.8-percent drop-off was led largely by losses in both professional and business services which fell by 4.7-percent.
Looking at the region in total, the employment gains managed to nudge the composite unemployment rate down slightly to 3.6-percent from the 3.7-percent in first quarter numbers.
Dr. Jim Robey is Director of Regional and Economic Planning Services for the Upjohn Institute. He says West Michigan’s economic indicators “were positive in the second quarter of 2016, suggesting that employment conditions may improve in the coming months. Region-wide the annual rate of new residential units put under contract for construction increased by 40-percent. For Berrien County’s MSA, that number actually tumbled by 12.6-percent as new housing slowed in the quarter.
New home construction soared in the Grand Rapids and Holland MSAs by 57.1-percent and 60.3-percent respectively, while the Kalamazoo market saw a much tamer 5.2-percent growth rate and Muskegon tumbled hard, down 31.1-percent. Construction in Battle Creek fell off by 15.2-percent.
Robey’s report bore simple headlines capsulizing the conditions in each market as follows:
- For the Battle Creek MSA — Losses in Goods-Producing Employment Cancel Out Gains in Government…
- For the Grand Rapids-Wyoming MSA — Sizable Growth of Services Sector Leads to Solid Employment Bump…
- For the Holland-Ottawa County MSA — Widespread Job Gains Help Holland Lower Unemployment Rate to 3.0 Percent
- For the Kalamazoo-Portage MSA — Mixed Industry Growth Leaves Employment Essentially Unchanged…
- For the Muskegon-Norton Shores MSA — Manufacturing Employment Makes a Strong Showing…
- For the Niles-Benton Harbor MSA — Decline in Services Employment Produces Slight Drop Overall…
In looking at the overall economic conditions in the state of Michigan. Robey’s headline reflects his tentative concerns as he says: Michigan Economy Purring Along, but Are There Storm Clouds on the Horizon?
Take a look at the full 32-page report by clicking the link below for more:
