The industrial economy in West Michigan is showing signs of slowing as 2025 draws to a close, according to the latest West Michigan Current Business Trends survey conducted by researchers at Grand Valley State University.
Survey data collected in the final two weeks of November show notable declines in key business measures.
Key findings from the November survey:
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New Orders: Dropped sharply from -4 to -20, signaling slower business growth.
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Production: Fell from +4 to -23, reflecting weaker output in local manufacturing.
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Purchases: Hit a 40-month low at -33 amid tariffs and rising costs.
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Employment: Stalled as slower electric vehicle production reduces new job growth; regional unemployment remains around 5.2%.
National and sector trends:
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ISM and S&P Global surveys show slower order growth and rising inventories, despite steady production.
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Consumer confidence declined, with the Conference Board Index falling to 88.7 and University of Michigan sentiment dropping to 51.0.
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Automotive sales remain relatively stable, though electric vehicle demand weakened after the expiration of the federal tax credit.
According to the survey, many firms area report ongoing challenges from tariffs, rising costs, and the slowdown in electric vehicle production, a sector that has been a major driver of employment growth in the region over the past 15 years. West Michigan’s unemployment rate remains elevated at 5.2 percent, according to state estimates.
National trends mirror the regional slowdown
The Institute for Supply Management reported a modest dip in its November New Orders index to -8 and declining backlogs, while the S&P Global manufacturing survey highlighted rising inventories despite modest production growth. Analysts noted that manufacturers are producing more goods, but weaker-than-expected sales have led to a buildup of unsold stock. Consumer confidence also softened last month. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 88.7, its lowest level since April, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 51.0, the lowest since June 2022, reflecting concerns over prices and economic uncertainty.
Automotive sales in West Michigan remain relatively stable, though weaker demand for electric vehicles following the expiration of the federal tax credit is impacting overall November figures. Analysts caution that rising prices and supply-chain pressures could continue to weigh on sales heading into 2026.
Economists emphasize that a single month of data does not necessarily indicate a trend, but they urge caution as the new year begins. With ongoing trade tensions, inflationary pressures, and evolving manufacturing dynamics, the region’s economy faces challenges in the months ahead. Survey researchers say the coming months will be critical for understanding whether these November declines are temporary or indicative of a longer-term slowdown.
