The people who track our retail shopping habits closer than any other agency in the world have issued a forecast for the holiday season ahead and it should put a smile on most retailer’s faces as the leaves begin to change colors across the region.
The National Retail Federation has announced that it expects holiday retail sales in November and December — excluding automobiles, gasoline and restaurants — to increase between 4.3 and 4.8-percent over 2017 for a total of $717.45 billion to $720.89 billion. That forecast compares with an average annual increase of 3.9-percent over the past five years.
Matthew Shay is the President and Chief Executive Officer of the National Retail Federation. He says, “Our forecast reflects the overall strength of the industry.” By way of explanation, Shay says, “Thanks to a healthy economy and strong consumer confidence, we believe that this holiday season will continue to reflect the growth we’ve seen over the past year. While there is concern about the impacts of an escalating trade war, we are optimistic that the pace of economic activity will continue to increase through the end of the year.”
Holiday sales in 2017 totaled $687.87 billion, a 5.3-percent increase over the year before and the largest increase since the 5.2-percent year-over-year gain seen in 2010 after the end of the Great Recession.
Jack Kleinhenz is Chief Economist for the Federation. He tells us, “Last year’s strong results were thanks to growing wages, stronger employment and higher confidence, complemented by anticipation of tax cuts that led consumers to spend more than expected.” He adds, “With this year’s forecast, we continue to see strong momentum from consumers as they do the heavy lifting in supporting our economy. The combination of increased job creation, improved wages, tamed inflation and an increase in net worth all provide the capacity and the confidence to spend.”
The holiday forecast is consistent with NRF’s forecast that annual retail sales for 2018 will increase at least 4.5-percent over 2017.
NRF’s holiday forecast is based on an economic model using several indicators including consumer credit, disposable personal income and previous monthly retail sales. The number includes online and other non-store sales. For historic sales information you can visit NRF’s Holiday Headquarters online.
Even with the increasingly tight labor market, retailers have been preparing for their busiest season of the year by hiring extra staff to help meet the demand expected during November and December. As part of its forecast, NRF expects retailers to hire between 585,000 and 650,000 temporary workers this holiday season, up from last year’s 582,500.
The National Retail Federation is the world’s largest retail trade association. Based in Washington, D.C., NRF represents discount and department stores, home goods and specialty stores, Main Street merchants, grocers, wholesalers, chain restaurants and internet retailers from the United States and more than 45 countries. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, supporting one in four U.S. jobs — 42 million working Americans. Contributing $2.6 trillion to annual GDP, retail is a daily barometer for the nation’s economy.
